Democrats Rebound Slightly in Senate Forecast

Nate Silver says his Senate forecast “is pretty darned close.”

“As you can see, there hasn’t been an across-the-board shift. Republicans’ odds have improved in several important races since the launch of our model. Democrats’ odds have improved in several others. But the two states with the largest shifts have been Colorado and North Carolina — in both cases, the movement has been in Democrats’ direction. That accounts for most of the difference in the forecast.”

Election Lab now shows Democrats with a 51% chance of retaining the Senate.