A Tale of Two Elections

Larry Sabato and Kyle Kondik: “As we approach the home stretch, 2014 has turned into a tale of two elections. On the one hand, this is a classic sixth-year itch election where the incumbent president’s party is going to suffer losses in both houses of Congress. We’re just arguing about exactly how many. Overall, it is indisputable that Republicans will have more critical victories to celebrate than Democrats when all the ballots are counted, and they have a strong and increasing chance to control the next Senate.”

“On the other hand, there are unusual and even a few bizarre features on the landscape. Some Democratic incumbent senators have been hanging tough in heavily Republican territory; months ago, many observers thought they’d be quickly swept out to sea in a red tide. The GOP is having a difficult time making inroads in competitive “purple” states and districts, and very little progress at all has been seen in Democratic blue areas.”