Path to Holding Senate Narrows for Democrats

Greg Sargent: “If Democrats can hold on in just one of the four following toss-up states in which they are currently trailing — Colorado, Iowa, Arkansas, or Alaska — their hopes of holding the Senate remain alive. That is plausible. But a lot has to go their way after that.”

“Let’s give Republicans West Virgina, Montana, and South Dakota up front, while giving Democrats North Carolina, New Hampshire, and Michigan — outcomes that are consistent with the polling averages. If Dems can limit Republicans to wins in three of these four (CO, IA, AR, AK), that puts the GOP at 51 seats. That would probably send us into overtime, with Louisiana and Georgia likely to head to run-offs due to election rules.”