Ranking the Election Forecasts

The Monkey Cage uses Brier scores to evaluate the accuracy of various election forecast models:

1. Daily Kos (.024)
2. Election Lab (.027)
3. FiveThirty Eight (.032)
4. PredictWise (.032)
5. Pollster (.034)
6. The Upshot (.035)
7. Princeton Election Consortium (.043)

“Brier scores take into account both whether races were called correctly and the underlying confidence of the forecast.  The best outcome is to be 100 percent certain and correct (a Brier score of 0).  The worst outcome is to be 100 percent certain and incorrect (a Brier score of 1).  Lower scores are better.”