Sean Trende looks at fundamentals-based models of the 2016 presidential election and finds they “point to a reasonably close election; they do not suggest that the Democratic nominee should be considered the favorite at this point.”
“When we look at the overall political science view of elections, the picture is far less rosy for Clinton (or any other Democratic nominee). The 2016 election looks more like pure tossup; if anything she’s the underdog, not the favorite.”
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Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.
Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.
Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.
Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.