Fundamentals Suggest Close Race in 2016

Sean Trende looks at fundamentals-based models of the 2016 presidential election and finds they “point to a reasonably close election; they do not suggest that the Democratic nominee should be considered the favorite at this point.”

“When we look at the overall political science view of elections, the picture is far less rosy for Clinton (or any other Democratic nominee). The 2016 election looks more like pure tossup; if anything she’s the underdog, not the favorite.”