Matching Presidential Candidates With Their Predecessors

Brendan Nyhan: “Taking inspiration from sports analysts who use qualitative and quantitative methods to identify the best comparisons for individual athletes, I’ve identified the historical candidate who I think most resembles each of the top six G.O.P. contenders. I also created a computer algorithm that matched current and former candidates based on census region of origin and highest office attained, and also on similarities in age, favorability ratings, name recognition, estimated ideology and party presidential vote in their state. The resulting pairs help clarify where the field stands and suggest past elections that might provide useful precedents for the current race.”