GOP Establishment Moves to Underdog Status

Jim Geraghty argues that Jeb Bush, Mitt Romney, and Chris Christie aren’t in the top tier of Republican presidential candidates in 2016. Instead, the top candidates are Scott Walker, Marco Rubio, Rick Perry, and Bobby Jindal.

First Read: “Now, we can disagree on some of these names (Perry? Jindal?), but it seems that Geraghty is making a bigger point here: As long as the GOP establishment is divided — especially if some combination of Bush/Romney/Christie are running — it’s hard to include them in the first tier. The reason: It becomes a simple math game. In the 2014 midterms, the GOP establishment won (see Thom Tillis, Dan Sullivan, Cory Gardner) in large part because the Republican establishment was united (not divided) around one candidate. And in 2016, the easiest way an establishment Republican candidate makes it to the first tier is if there is just one of them. But that’s not the case right now.”