Early Betting for the GOP Presidential Nomination

Charlie Cook: “Acknowledging that much will inevitably change, at this point Bush and Walker each seem to have about a 1-in-3 chance of winning the nomination—call it 35 percent for each. There’s maybe a 1-in-5, or 20 percent, chance that the nod will go to any tea-party candidate, so let’s give Cruz and Paul each a 10 percent chance. The rest of the field gets the remaining 10 percent; right now, that’s what I estimate is the likelihood that someone other than one of the aforementioned four will win the nomination.”

Give your own odds in the comments.