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The Polls That Will Decide the GOP Debaters

August 3, 2015 · 5:28 pm ET · 29 Comments

Gabriel Sherman: “According to the source, candidates will be chosen from the following polls: Monmouth University (released today), NBC News/Wall Street Journal (August 2), Quinnipiac University (July 30), Bloomberg, CBS/New York Times, and Fox News (all releasing tomorrow). If a poll from ABC News or another organization fitting Fox’s criteria is released overnight, then it will be swapped in.”

“Based on the five most recent polls that meet Fox’s standards, Trump will be center stage flanked by Jeb Bush and Scott Walker. On the bubble, it’s looking like Ohio governor John Kasich will edge out Rick Perry for the final spot. If current numbers hold, the remaining prime-time participants will be: Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz, Mike Huckabee, Chris Christie, Ben Carson, and Rand Paul.”

The Upshot: Who gets in the debate?

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