Previewing the Second GOP Debate

New York Times: “Just as last time, Jeb Bush, the former Florida governor, will be to Mr. Trump’s left on the stage. Mr. Bush is the rival whom Mr. Trump most loves to kick, and it has visibly gotten under Mr. Bush’s skin.”

“To Mr. Trump’s right will be Ben Carson, the retired neurosurgeon who has become a recent target of the reality television star as he has risen in the polls, in part on the success of his performance at the first debate. Mr. Trump has used the same basic insult against Mr. Carson that he has against Mr. Bush — that he’s lacking in energy. But Mr. Carson’s response has been fairly self-assured, potentially forecasting a bit of a change in the dynamic for Mr. Trump, who has almost always succeeded in getting the last word with his opponents.”

First Read looks at what’s changed since the first debate:

• Donald Trump has solidified his lead in the polls, and the critical coverage he received in July/August has been replaced by a perception that he’s bulletproof — at least for now;
• Ben Carson has surged into second place, despite what originally seemed like a lackluster performance at the first debate and despite very little campaign activity;
• Jeb Bush and Scott Walker have dropped — with Walker’s fall even more striking than Hillary Clinton’s decline over the past month;
• On the issues front, the Iran deal is essentially a done deal, while the odds of a government shutdown over Planned Parenthood have increased;
• Carly Fiorina has made it to the main debate stage, with CNN changing its debate criteria to allow for 11 to participate in the main debate, instead of the 10 we saw last month.