Walker’s Exit Challenges Assumptions About 2016

Rick Klein: “Scott Walker’s exit is a jolt to a chaotic and still churning presidential race. It also challenges some of the biggest assumptions that have governed understanding and analysis of the 2016 cycle. First, early polls really, really don’t matter. The candidate with the best six months of 2015 is gone one quarter later, without a scandal or an ‘oops’ to blame for it. Second, super PACs are overrated. Yes, they can provide critical air cover, but only if you have a real operation on the ground. Giant outside entities could save neither Walker nor Rick Perry, who struggled with hard dollars despite being established, big-state governors with national fundraising bases.”

“Finally – and most significantly – this most crowded primary in recent history could get quite a bit roomier. If the dollars don’t exist to support 17 candidates, they most likely can’t sustain 15 serious candidacies either. Walker wasn’t a candidate long enough to even file an FEC report; those reports will be scrutinized for burn rates in a few weeks, with the possibility of some flameouts even before then.