How to Forecast a Government Shutdown

Stan Collender says that four questions will determine if there’s a government shutdown:

1. Will Ted Cruz go quietly?
2. Is the coup danger to Boehner real? Or an empty gesture?
3. Will the House Democrats play and help Boehner?
4. Does Boehner need a shutdown in order to keep his job?

First Read: “Indeed, it’s that last point that should give everyone pause: Can any congressional watcher envision a scenario where both shutdown DOESN’T happen and Boehner KEEPS his job?”