• nycguy

    Democratic pick up!

    • 1Jeremybozz1

      Chris Sununu will be an excellent Governor of New Hampshire.

      • growe

        Hey where is that poll, on gay marriage, in your beloved West Virginia, with those “lower than Alabama” numbers you made up?

        You are delusional AND a liar. A waste of electrons. Very appealing.

        Like a Sununu (none will ever hold office again), Bush (none will ever hold office again), or an Ayotte (she will never hold office again).

        You are like a fact mirror, like your President Romney. What you predict verifies what will not and cannot happen on Real World.

        • nycguy

          In all fairness, Romney promised us unemployment below 6%.

          • growe

            A number that Obama, of course, has met and exceeded. Romney just expected to inherit the fruit of Obama’s labor. Like his ancestor’s did from Obama’s.

  • Iznogoud

    Now at least, NH is a pick-up possibility (but not a done deal by any means).

  • Wynstone

    Our goal is to make Mitch McConnell a one-term Majority Leader.

    • growe

      And since our Democrats don’t make “that” their focus, their odds of success are good.

  • With this possible pickup, are we anywhere near flipping the senate?

    • MarcTGFG

      Still one short, if Demorats win the presidency!

      • MarcTGFG

        That’s how I would rank them right now (likelyhood to flip):

        1. Wisconsin (80%)
        2. Illinois (70%)
        3. New Hampshire (60%)
        4.-5. Ohio/Florida (50%)
        6. Pennsylvania (40%)
        7.-9. Arizona (if McCain gets out-primaried), Indiana, North Carolina (if a good democratic challenger emerges) (less than 30%)

        • growe

          I think Hassan shoves New Hampshire to 75%, and a Democratic tailwind and weak GOP national candidate shoves Ohio and Florida above 50% too. But terrific sequence of rankings. I do think Feingold, Duckwroth, and Hassan start with a massive lead and in blue states, so their odds are quite high….

          • MarcTGFG

            Let’s wait for the first post-announcement polls from NH before getting too cocky. The last polls showed Ayotte very competitive!

          • 1Jeremybozz1

            Ayotte leads by 8%,6%,3% and 1% in the last 4 polls conducted from July to September.

          • growe

            As noted above (since Jeremy feels compulsion to cite misleading numbers multiple times to imply accuracy – much like a Karl Rove would do):

            These numbers are accurate only if you cherry pick byciting only Real Clear Politics and pretend other pollsters with Hassan leads do not exist.

            Also Jerry cites 8% and 6% in a cluster to imply the numbers are going up and down from 1% to 8% Ayotte leads. The real trend of course is that the early July lead was 6%, late July was 8%. By end August Ayotte polls outside margin of error lower at 1% and 3% leads that are (ta da) within margin of error.

            If Jeremy cites numbers, consider it as reliable as a Drudge Report.

          • 1Jeremybozz1

            Ayotte won by more than 23% for US Senate. Hassan won by just a 5.1% margin for Governor. If you truly think Hassan has a 75% chance to win go ahead and think that. It will be a close race and Hassan does have a 35% to 40% chance at it.

          • growe

            Once more Jeremy the imaginary numbers stretcher comes up with a lame, pathetic, desperate theory to validate himself. BUT at least he will be on hiatus here from Nov 2016 to Mar 2017 making up excuses.

          • growe

            Hassan won by 5% (in a red year) and Ayotte won by 23% in the best red year since – I guess 1994.

            But you tell yourself whatever you like to pretend disaster is not imminent, like I could care. Hillary takes the oath with new Majority Leader Schumer and new Speaker Hoyer watching – none of them care what Jeremy “thinks” either.

            But hey congratulations for using factual numbers for a change. I guess getting called out loudly is educating you.

          • APV

            The top of the ticket matters a lot, esp if Ayotte has to distance herself from the crazies to get cross-overs. Also if there is a Govt shutdown in December or if Republicans try to be unreasonable about debt ceiling increase, those could have a big impact across the board for all first-term Republican Senators running for reelection from blue/purple states. The leadership fight in the House implies lot more dysfunction and gridlock. If Senate and House Republicans are divided, your side will lose the fight with Democrats.

          • jbinphilly

            The 2013 shutdown didn’t hell Dems at all in 2014. If anything it so disgusted voters with the political system that they stayed home in droves (even more so than typical for midterms), allowing Republicans to post a landslide.

            A shutdown in December, if it happens, similarly won’t help Democrats next year. Most voters have too short memories, and those tho do remember will likely just stay home again.

          • growe

            I disagree here. The bad Obamacare launch gave the desperate GOP a needed distraction from that shutdown. They won’t be that lucky twice.

          • APV

            That shutdown was immediately followed by ACA website fiasco, which quickly put Democrats on the defensive. 2014 turnout cannot be used as the basis for 2016.
            Even a partial shutdown in 1995 turned the tide in favor of Bill Clinton in 1996.

          • cmb

            The shutdown was drowned by media-assisted nontroversy over the Obamacare website roll out. Then most of the Democratic candidates refused to actually campaign aggressively on the GOTP’s long record of ruinous obstruction and staged crises.

          • chrispa9573

            Most of the Senate seats lost in 2014 were in red states with incumbents retiring. Democrats were doomed in most of those states no matter what happened. Co and Iowa were seats that should have never been loss. Both Democratic candidates ran horrible campaigns.

          • growe

            Oh and you forgot to up-vote yourself, that’s always so pathetically cute.

    • growe

      Let’s see Johnson in Wisconsin, doomed. Kirk in Illinois, doomed.
      Ayotte of New Hampshaire, now doomed.

      Nevada and Florida uncertain (Rubio, Reid vacancies) but certainly attainable.

      Pennsylvania should be Toomey doomed but pending candidate selection.
      Portman in Ohio not a sure thing but with national electorate he is quite vulnerable.

      • APV

        You have to give the edge to Democrats in NV in a Presidential election year in which Republicans have been working overtime to turnout Hispanic voters for the other side.

        • growe

          I surely do. Even better Sandoval has said he won’t run, right? So not having a Latino sellout for Senate nominee is a massive gift to Democrats.

          • MarcTGFG

            I also don’t see Nevada as a swing state anymore. More in New Mexico territory…

            The ripple effect coming to a state called Arizona soon…

          • APV

            Sandoval ruled out running for the open Senate seat.

            Catherine Cortez Masto is an excellent candidate and was leading Joe Heck by 1 point in a July PPP poll.

      • MarcTGFG

        What we should worry about is Bennett in Colorado!

      • jbinphilly

        Pat Toomey still has sizable leads over Sestak and other hypothetical opponents. He can be beaten, but he’s definitely the clear favorite at this point.

        • growe

          Hey, I give Toomey (and even Kirk in Illinois) some credit, trying to vote to the center and not all-TeaBag all the time (smarter than Ayotte or Johnson, in other words). If either is smart they will scream against shutdown budget games, soften further on Obamacare, maybe even support some tiny amount of gun control.

          Pennsylvania Democrats are disappointing with recruiting a candidate, but – despite Palin and Ryan and others making believe Pennyslvania is in play – the GOP nominee loses big in PA again in 2016 and could easily take Toomey down with them – he has to answer for the BS they sling on the stump, after all.

          • jbinphilly

            I don’t doubt that Pennsylvania will be fools’ gold once again for the Republican presidential nominee. But unless it is a major landslide, I could definitely see Pat Toomey getting reelected even if the Dems get PA’s electoral votes for President.

  • growe

    Goodbye Kelly. Time to look up all those big money job offers you get for being a bad Senator. Maggie will take all your right-wing “wrong for NH” positions (gun control, minimum wage) and cram ’em up your butt. Don’t worry, you basically won the “Eric Cantor” lottery and will be a very rich woman quite soon.
    Leave the governing to people who are willing to govern.

  • Gwyneth Hannaford

    Already seeing the GOPer lies about Maggie as we are in their TV market.

  • 1Jeremybozz1

    Ayotte is ahead by 8%,6%,3% and 1% in the last 4 polls of this matchup conducted from July until September. It will be a close race but I feel fairly good about it. WIth New Hampshire being polled so often anyway,there will be all kinds of polls of this race coming out in the next few months.

    • growe

      How do those cherries you are picking taste? Oh sorry do you mean FOX polls or what?

      Per The Hill (GOP propogandist) – Hassan leads 1% Sept 7
      PPP Dem but honest pollster – Hassan leads 1% Sept 26

      Oh I broke the code. You just went to Real Clear Politics (GOP bias well proven in past) and declared they had ‘all’ the polls on this match up 7 July to 2 Sept. At least now when you make vague claims without revealing source, we know where to check first.

      By the way, did you find that West Virginia-gay marriage “poll” you stated as fact?

      • growe

        Both of the polls I cite, with unannounced Hassan leading by 1% (a statistical tie), are later than the last of Real Clear Politics’ “Jeremey all polls” citation, it goes without saying.

    • growe

      Let me also applaud your attempt to spin the numbers to Ayotte’s advantage. If you only cite recent results (26 Aug, 2 Sep) Ayotte is at statistical tie with Hassan, 1-3% leads (within MoE).

      To bolster “I feel good about this race” you have to go back to July polls to get clear leads of 6 and 8% – when of course Hassan candidacy was more speculative (and in fairness the GOP had done less hard work making itself look crazy and useless, throwing mud on Ayotte).

      If you felt “good” about Ayotte’s chances you wouldn’t be “unskewing the polls” for her. The real narrative: “Ayotte loses statistical lead, locked in tie with Hassan before declaration of candidacy.” The trend is Ayotte falling and now very popular Gov Hassan is a real live candidate.

      This isn’t an RNC or FOX committee. Don’t cite numbers to lie to yourself and call them facts.

      • growe

        Of course in July Walker lead in Iowa too, so see the technical term for that data is “old.”

    • ralph_wiggam

      And Walker was also leading in the polls at the same time.

  • Alister

    Yes!!!!! Step #1 in taking back the Senate!

  • CAfan

    Also, in senate news, Colorado still doesn’t have a good candiate to challenge Bennett…From the electoral-vote site:

    “Probably the only Democratic senator who is vulnerable in 2016 is Sen. Michael Bennet (D-CO). The Republicans had staked their hopes of beating him on Arapahoe County District Attorney George Brauchler. Unfortunately for them, Brauchler just announced he is not going to run for the Senate. This leaves a big hole in the GOP’s plans as there is really no other top-quality alternative. They will find someone, of course, but Bennet just gave a huge sigh of relief”. (V)

    • Buford2k11

      Yes…Bennett was looking a little shaky…He still is…the Dems I know were worried…but until the R’s find someone competent, and not insane, Bennett is fairly safe…I still am angry about the Cory Gardner win…Udall was the Best for Colorado…

      • CAfan

        Yeah, i thought Udall was going to win….If someone would have told me one Democrat was going to win and one lose in last November’s election, i would have thought for sure Gov Hickenlooper would be the one who would lose…..Didn’t Hickenlooper enact some gun control laws, and isn’t Colorado a huge gun rights state?…..

        Gardner must have run a perfect campaign…He’s a very far right guy, but he’s probably not a Santorum type who shoots his mouth off so that helped him….

        • Buford2k11

          Gardner lied his ass off, and the local publications were in the tank for the gop…Plus, Koch money, and more lies, and Udall ran a terrible campaign…Apathy, and all the other sad things that happened that last cycle…A combination of many things caused us to lose that seat…on top of all that, we got a State Senate Republican majority, and the leader of that scum slick is an ALEC puppet…

          • mikemiller56

            ditto Iowa

  • aabb4455

    Ayotte is toast. These right wingers will not be able to rely on low turnout to win like they dd in 2010.

    • embo66

      Don’t forget 2014. Lowest voter turnout in 72 years.

      (And yet Republicans like Jason Chaffetz claim that “America” elected Republicans to “historic new majorities across the board” in 2014. ** snort ** Yeah, with all of 39% of the eligible electorate voting — and they still only won by a percentage point or two!)

  • aabb4455

    If Hillary Clinton takes NH, it’s very likely Ayotte loses

  • Dem2016

    Hassan NH, Sestak PA, Duckworth IL, Feingold WI, Strickland OH and Murphy FL for the icing on the cake

  • Jack McGovern

    Go Maggie!!!

  • growe

    Win in TeaBag off year high red tide, lose in national election year blue tide.

  • realnrh

    Excellent news! Given New Hampshire’s voting history since 2000, I would find it very unlikely that there will be a split between the top-ticket races – so Hillary winning NH will likely mean Hassan and whoever runs for the corner office will be winning too!

  • growe

    Let’s see NH supports gun control, NRA puppet Ayotte does not. Oregon is just one of our predicatable mass shootings. Every one that follows now leaves her further out on a right wing limb.

    Kelly is trying to score points opposing the unnecessary, now-delayed government shutdown. Her bluish purple state will frown on it, but it is coming. Will Ayotte at least make a few votes to oppose the shutdown? I doubt it. Hassan will cheerfully hold her responsible when she falls in RWNJ line.

    On and on. Ayotte now has an opponent, not a hypothesis, to run against. Jeremy fiddling with numbers aside, her +1 or maybe +3 in recent polls against “generic” will be her high water mark from now on.

    She can shake that Romnesia-Etch a Sketch all she likes, she is on record as out of step for NH.

  • growe

    Obama won New Hampshire in 2012 with 52% of the vote, Romney got 46%.
    Let’s stipulate: the economy was weaker in 2012 than it is now or will be in 2016.

    Let’s extend then to say, Hillary or certainly Sanders will do no worse in 2016 than Obama 2012.
    Future-former Senator Ayotte would need 6% or more voting Democrat for President to back her.

    That is not going to happen. A strong candidate like Maggie Hassan just makes the end more certain.
    Kelly’s best chance would be to start voting with Democrats or swtich parties, but she won’t.

    If she wants to continue as TeaBag Woman, she loses worse than the GOP Presidential nominee.