Kyle Kondik: “Democrats do have a list of about 15-20 credible targets, while Republicans have a shorter list of plausible pickups… If Democrats hold the latter and win the lion’s share of the former, they could be about halfway to netting the 30 seats they need to win the House. But then the list of true targets dries up. In order for the Democrats to really threaten the Republican majority, they are going to need a major GOP meltdown.”
This is the Republican doomsday scenario:
“The new speaker… does an even poorer job… and a December shutdown is just a precursor to a year of widely-covered chaos in the House leading into next November…. Many swing-seat Republicans… recoil at the bleak post-Boehner landscape and decide against running for another term… The party’s presidential nominee, who may have spent late 2015 and the first half of 2016 cheering the efforts of shutdown-hungry elements of the Republican caucus, ends up being a colossal general election dud.”
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