Don’t Overestimate Impact of Terror Attacks on 2016

Brendan Nyhan: “How long-lasting an effect will the Paris attacks have on the United States presidential race? Absent further attacks, the suggestion that Paris will prove to be a ‘game changer’ is unlikely to be correct. Though unexpected events like Mitt Romney’s ’47 percent’ taped remarks or the Ebola outbreak often seem tremendously important at the time, their effects on the polls and the content of debate are often less durable than we expect. Even the killing of Osama bin Laden had little discernible effect on President Obama’s approval ratings.”

“One initial piece of evidence in favor of this hypothesis: Prices in betting markets tracked by David Rothschild of Microsoft Research over the weekend showed virtually no change in the expected winners of the Democratic and Republican presidential nominations or the general election.”