• Rogy16

    Somebody pass Priebus, Bush and the rest of the GOP elite the smelling salts. It is clear that this is the election season when the base really is fed up with the establishment and will not go with the hand-picked guy simply b/c it’s their turn. The way they see it, the GOP establishment has failed to get President Obama out of office or even stop his agenda.

    My feeling still is that there will be a brokered, historically nasty convention in which the GOP elite will try to take it from Trump. Hopefully the Dems will be ready to capitalize and state the reasons why an out-of-control party doesn’t need to be anywhere near elected office.

    • Cedric

      Mitt to the rescue?

      • mikemiller56

        Cedric, my friend, 80% of the minority vote may be too low this election.
        It is open racism with the governors regarding the refugees from Syria.
        I want the senate back badly that way they cannot muck up SC appointments.

      • ArkonaRus

        Ann Romney approves ;).

  • Eric Logan

    Christie, Paul, Kasich all out of next debate based on this. Huckabee back in, and Graham back into the JV one, assuming the same guidelines. Graham really has a chance to get some momentum right now IMO.

    • NeedACleverName

      The next one is December 15th, so I’d guess the poll standings will bounce around a bit before then.

    • embo66

      Graham really has a chance to get some momentum right now IMO.

      Yes, he can go down in history as garnering all of, what? 2%? during his 2016 presidential bid.

  • brainscoop

    I see that the GOP race continues to be a Trumpster fire

  • FuzzyLogik

    B-b-but, Chuck Todd said the Paris attacks were going to hurt inexperienced Trump and help dashing foreign policy wonk~ Marco Rubio finally surge! This makes no sense!

  • Lynda Groom

    I don’t know if I should continue laughing or cry at the incoherently of the average republican. Either way this is good news for the Clinton camp.

  • vidarien

    So i just read an article this morning saying rubio was number 1 in the power rankings.

    I dont care how potentially flawed this poll is, when hes polling 38%, and rubio is polling 7%, you need to wake up and look in the freaking mirror. Even if the margin of error was 15%, he’d STILL BE WINNING.

    They can keep trying to spin this until january, but guess what, when people actually start voting and find out this is for real, the veil is gonna come off and shit is gonna get real.

    • Cloner

      Bush at 6% at this point. Is there any way to come back from that? It will be amazing if it happens.

      • ArkonaRus

        He won’t be helped by his awful new TV ad, the one where he says he’s not a ‘yapper’ but a ‘do-er’. He has such awkward body and speech mannerisms in that ad. And at the closer, when he’s walking on the street with his aides or friends or whoever, it looks like he’s talking to himself.

    • The nytimes has a weird grid where they show Rubio as #1 based apparently on the betting markets, as he would be around #3 if they just combined all their criteria:


      i’d love to hear the secret formula that puts Rubio first.

      • Silent_Partner

        It’s called I got my check from the people who told me to write that shit.

    • Silent_Partner

      This is what I said last night. They’re in denial that this is going down. The base wants Trump or Cruz. I think Carson is even too crazy for them, but they do want a crazy talking that shit and will let it be known when they start voting in Iowa.

  • Wynstone

    If Trump wins the nomination, there are so many statements on the record against him within the GOP, the ads write themselves.

    • Berkshire_Boy

      And Super PACs to air them!

  • mfa123

    A point was made that John Kerry was in single digits way back when he got the nomination. It’s still pretty early and unpredictable.

    • Berkshire_Boy

      Except that Kerry was the obvious establishment candidate who wasn’t disliked by the base and Howard Dean imploded pretty fast and easily. This time the GOP establishment candidate (s) aren’t getting any traction and the base seems to actively dislike Bush and isn’t all that thrilled with Rubio. Faced with a choice between Trump and Cruz, I would think the estab. types would hold their nose and go for Trump.

      • FuzzyLogik

        Nah they’d go with Cruz anyday. Trump is too much of an existential threat to the entire party: he can’t be controlled, he holds several positions that are heretical to GOP donor class orthodoxy (pro-universal healthcare, anti-trade, pro-Social Security), and would destroy the Republican brand with Hispanics for at least a generation. They’d rather take Cruz, knowing that he would lose, and hold him up as an example to the base that they’d finally gone too far, like with Goldwater 50 years ago.

      • Kerry was an eensy bit disliked by the base.

    • ryp

      Yeah, Kerry and Edwards were polling roughly 5th and 6th nationally towards the end of 2003, and came back to take the top two spots in Iowa. Edward’s climb was a actually more impressive, as Kerry never really ran worse than third in Iowa through the fall, while Edwards was frequently in the low single digits. The Republican fields of 2008 and 2012 showed similar volatility, but on the other hand no non-incumbent Republican has been as dominant as Trump is in the polling since GWB in 2000.

      The Trump is unstoppable narrative is no more a predictable than the Trump will fall narrative. The only thing I feel near certain about, is that Jeb will not be the nominee.

    • Silent_Partner

      The difference is money. The people in front of Kerry didn’t have that much of it. With Bush and others behind the crazies, these people have money to sustain this. Cruz is the one that scares me because he apparently has lots of it and is out of this world kind of crazy.

  • Pat52

    It’s getting hard to see how Trump isn’t the nominee. Cruz may have to settle for the second spot.

    • L’Homme Armé

      We’re still in silly season — the first caucus is still 2½ months away. It’s certainly possible that he will be the nominee, but it’s way too early to call it inevitable.

  • vicupstate

    With the exception of three days earlier this month, when Trump was essentially tied with Carson, he has led every day since July 20 in the Real Clear Politics Average.

    Pretty impressive.

  • ProfessorNewshound

    This is yet another poll showing that, for whatever reason, Carson clearly tanked in the last debate while Trump held his own. It’s also another poll showing that Rubio, who is obviously liked by the media and by DC party elites (and was crowned as a “winner” of the debate) still shows no signs of gaining traction among grass roots Republicans. And Jeb? DOA…and increasingly deserving of being in the undercard/kiddie table debate.

    Beltway folks have been desperate to find evidence to support the idea that Trump is dropping and (since Jeb has dropped out of favor since he’s clearly a bust) that Rubio is on the rise. Alas, facts are stubborn things — the data still do not match the desired DC elite/media meme.

    • Cloner

      Bush at the kiddie table. I’ll eat my shorts.

      • OBforObama

        I don’t think he’d show. But I’d watch the video of you eating your shorts.

        • Cloner

          Hmmm. I’ll have to sell ads, or make it pay-for-view.

          • ArkonaRus

            I prefer kettle popcorn!

    • i think the moment beltway elites anoint anyone the know nothings will reject him.

    • Arkenblaster

      I think Sabato has pointed this out on his site: the Republican party is dominated by older whites. Marco Rubio is not either of those things. Neither is Raphael Cruz Jr. A sizable portion of the party base may never warm to either one.

      • Curtis

        Neither is Carson and he is doing well, especially in very white Iowa.

        • Arkenblaster

          Evangelicals. Ben Carson, who has sold himself as the old white evangelical dream: an angry violent black youth who found Jesus and turned his life around, is doing well enough in this crowded field to poll top two.

          Rubio, I will note, is neither old, white, nor evangelical.

          • ArkonaRus

            I think to many voters, though, Cruz looks white, looks old and is evangelical.

  • Berkshire_Boy

    Increasing the GOP base seems determined to nominate a candidate that is going to go down in flames like Barry Goldwater.

    • ProfessorNewshound

      I think that right now to a large segment of the GOP base the key issue is immigration, and Trump’s unequivocal hard-line position is music to the ears of the xenophobes and jingoists who are a big part if the GOP electorate.

  • Things are looking up for Jeb! He’s only dropped to fifth in this poll!!

    • he may have got the kasichmentum

  • MYMY

    Those TeaPartiers love them some big fat liars, don’t they? I heard Trump telling a rally of them yesterday, “Obama wants to bring in hundreds of thousands, hundreds of thousands refugees–no paperwork,” so of course the crowd loves him. They love the liars–and their delusions–more than life itself.

    • james, lord of devonshire

      I thought the figure was ten thousand who have been properly vetted. well when I say properly.

      • MYMY

        It is 10,000, not “hundreds of thousands.” The guy lies like the rug on his head.

  • FrogLeg

    There’s a fascinating collective action dynamic right now in the GOP primary. You have a bunch of people who (1) are polling in the single digits but who still (2) think they have a real chance, since the top ones will “inevitability” fall. So no one has an incentive to drop out, but no one will improve unless others drop out. Their dark money backing keeps them in the race longer than otherwise too. So they are completely trapped.

    It is quite ironic that a bunch of free marketers are trapped in a collective action problem.

    • lostintheswamp

      ironic, and hugely satisfying …

  • PorridgeGun

    And rightly so… Trump is saying exactly what the conservative nutbase wants to hear. They don’t want a flip-flopping squish like Rubio (after months of the MSM pumping his tires, is only 7% LOL) taking the fight to “Hitlery” in 2016. They got burned by McCain in ’08 and Romney in 2012.

    GOP establishment and the DC press must be suicidal. This is the second poll showing Trump surging. The only good news for them here is Ted Cruz is tied with Jeb! and Jeb 2.0.

  • I feel like the GOP is ready to go full white-Christian-nationalist.

    • littlejohn

      Especially if Cruz wins the nomination somehow.

    • ArkonaRus

      But there is some progress: For them, it’s no longer just white Protestant Christian nationalist ;). Catholics are finally welcome at the table.

  • WigglyWeasel

    I’ve noticed that every Morning Consult poll (never heard of them before this year) has had Trump up by more than any of the other polls. Either they’re the only one that has it right, or something is wrong with their methodology.

    • Rhysem

      It’s likely their weighting or their sample. I doubt there’s anything wrong with the underlying methodology. Quinnipac is another one that has shown a really strong R-bias this cycle, for instance, but their methodology is sound. A lot depends on your turnout model and subsequent weighting.

  • Silent_Partner

    Well, at least Jeb doubled his support in this one from that other poll that came out yesterday.

  • politicsjunkie

    Jindal has dropped out of the race. I wonder who will get both of his supporters (Bobby and his wife.)

    • ArkonaRus

      And the Duck Dynasty! I’m guessing they’ll go for the Huckster.