Washington Post: “Political scientists love to talk about fundamentals and concoct formulas to predict how races will turn out. But a bad candidate undermines that. Vitter was a bad candidate. Massachusetts is as blue as Louisiana is red, but Democrat Martha Coakley lost a Senate race to Scott Brown in 2010 and a governor’s race to Charlie Baker in 2014 because she is a terrible retail politician. In Kentucky, Jack Conway started as the frontrunner and blew totally winnable races against Rand Paul in 2010 and Matt Bevin in 2015. In both cases, the attorney general tried to make the race about his opponent’s flaws, and it backfired.”

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