No Excitement for GOP Establishment

First Read: “With two months to go until the Iowa caucuses, here’s another reality check on the state of the 2016 race: The Republican insurgents (Donald Trump, Ben Carson, Ted Cruz) are still beating the GOP establishment (Marco Rubio, Jeb Bush, Chris Christie) — in the polls, in excitement, and in energy. Sure, two months is a long time in American politics (Newt Gingrich was leading Mitt Romney in the Dec. 2011 national NBC/WSJ poll by 17 points!!!). And, yes, what’s been a surprising and strange race will likely become even more surprising and stranger. But the only candidates who have truly surged so far in this GOP contest have been the insurgents.”

“So where is the excitement and energy on the establishment side? When will, say, Marco Rubio shoot up in an early-state poll the same way we saw, say, Ted Cruz in the most recent Quinnipiac poll of Iowa — despite Rubio’s recent endorsements and his impressive debate performances? It’s more than possible that Rubio (or Jeb) could win the GOP nomination without winning either Iowa or New Hampshire — something that’s never happened before in modern times on the Republican side. Such a scenario would prove the political scientists right that, ultimately, ‘the party decides.’ But until then, we’re still waiting for the establishment hype around Rubio among the insider crowd to translate into something tangible in the polls or on the ground. Then again, maybe simply being seen as even having a toe in the establishment is enough to chase away primary voters. Nothing can be assumed at this point.”