Will Trump’s Bandwagon Effect Backfire?

Brendan Nyhan: “Donald Trump misses no opportunity to remind us that he’s ahead in the polls for the Republican presidential nomination… But he may also be trying to generate a bandwagon effect, a well-documented phenomenon in political science but one that may leave him vulnerable to future disruptions.”

“Research shows that expectations of success are strongly associated with which candidates people support in primaries, especially among less informed voters. In this way, Mr. Trump’s initial success may have helped attract more support, creating a positive feedback dynamic that helped fuel his monthslong ascent in the polls. At this point, his lead in the polls has almost become a rationale for his campaign.”

“But if those expectations of success change as a result of, say, a surprising primary or caucus defeat, Mr. Trump’s supporters may shift their support to another candidate.”