First Read now sees only two possible outcomes for the Republican presidential race: 1) Donald Trump will be the nominee or 2) A contested convention.
As of now, Trump currently has a 64-delegate lead over his nearest competition: Trump 81, Cruz 17, Rubio 17, Kasich 8, Carson 5
Trump could emerge with 100-plus delegate lead after Super Tuesday: Trump 289, Rubio 184, Cruz 154, Kasich 53, Carson 41 (assuming a Trump 35%, Rubio 28%, Cruz 23%, Kasich 8%, Carson 6% proportional split of delegates).
Looking beyond Super Tuesday:
- If Trump win Florida and Ohio, he’s more than halfway to nomination: And if Trump wins the winner-take-all states of Florida and Ohio on March 15, he’s at 650 delegates — more than half of the 1,237 needed to win the GOP nomination (That assumes Trump wins 35% of the delegates up for grabs in the March 5-12 contests, as well as 35% of the proportional states on March 15): Trump 650, Rubio 340, Cruz 278.
- If Rubio wins Florida and Ohio, he’ll have a small lead over Trump: But if Rubio wins winner-take-all Florida AND Ohio, Rubio emerges with a slight overall delegate lead: Rubio 505, Trump 485, Cruz 278
- If Kasich wins Ohio, Trump will have slight lead: But if Kasich wins Ohio and Rubio wins Florida, it’s Trump 485, Rubio 439, Cruz 278, Kasich 148
?Political Trivia
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Do you have your finger on the pulse of America?
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Four questions a day.
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