NBC News: “The delegate math is becoming increasingly clear: The March 15 Florida and Ohio contests will determine if Donald Trump is the sure-to-be Republican nominee or if there’s a contested GOP convention. And there doesn’t appear to be any other possibility, given that the nominee needs to win 1,237 delegates to win a majority.”
Here’s the delegate math:
- If Trump wins Florida and Ohio, he needs to win 50% of remaining delegates, which is more than doable as both Rubio and Kasich would likely drop out after losing their home states.
- But if Trump wins Florida but loses Ohio, he would need 57% of the remaining delegates. And if Trump loses both Ohio and Florida, he would need to win 66% of remaining delegates to get to 1,237 — and that could be a hard climb.
FiveThirtyEight: “The effort to stop Trump may no longer call for consolidation around one alternative; it’s now a multifront war led by multiple candidates and disparate factions of the party with the singular aim of preventing Trump from winning 1,237 delegates.”
Rick Klein: “But make no mistake about what that would mean: That would be the Republican Party burning itself down in order to save itself.”
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