Sanders Is Actually Worse Off After Wisconsin

Matthew Yglesias: “The good news for Bernie Sanders is that he won Wisconsin… The bad news for Sanders is that in doing so he likely fell even further behind the pace he needs to capture the Democratic nomination.”

“With seven of the past eight states to vote in the Sanders column, Berners feel they have momentum on their side. But the truth is that little has changed in terms of the underlying demographic divides in the race — young and white Democrats like Sanders; older, black, and Latino Democrats like Clinton. And relative to its demographics, Sanders simply didn’t do well enough to catch Clinton.”

“New York is 17.6 percent African-American (versus 6.6 percent for Wisconsin) and 18.6 percent Hispanic (versus 6.5 percent for Wisconsin). Relative to that much more diverse electorate, it’s not good enough for Sanders to narrowly edge out Clinton. According to Silver’s math, he needs to beat her by 4 points to net enough delegates to stay on track — and that’s even before he fell a delegate or two short in Wisconsin. Right now he’s down 10 points.”