• Zog Hackendorft

    It’s going to be a looong 6 days till I cast my vote for the most qualified person running. Go Hillary!

    • CalStateDisneyland

      I voted early for Hillary. It is just a shame I can’t vote often. 🙂

  • ralph_wiggam

    Wow, sanders just might make up 3 or 4 delegates if he gets that kind of massive lead, then he only has to find another 264 delegates to catch up to clinton!

    • At that rate, they should be tied, just as soon as the next 61 states finish their primaries. Or caucuses.

  • dory

    Let’s look deeper into the numbers. In California, about half of the total vote are typically early (absentee) voters. Hillary leads early voters in this poll by 17 points.
    Early voters tend to be older. Among poll respondents who are 45 years and older, Hillary leads by 30 points.
    The key question is what percentage of the total vote will be early voters. If it runs true to form, Hillary wins.

    • APV

      Also, she leads 51-46 among white voters. The poll has Sanders leading among Hispanic voters 49-46, which appears odd, as Sanders lost that demographic in AZ, TX, FL, and NY.

      • eve

        So are you saying that Hispanic voters in CA are more socialist than in those other 4 states?

        j/k

        • APV

          Or much younger, mostly male, and registered as independent or unaffiliated.

      • David Rutawitz

        dont forget that he lost Hispanic voters in NV as well

        • APV

          Agree. I only looked for primary states as examples, and not caucus states.

          • David Rutawitz

            thats probly a safe assumption

      • Curt Richardson

        I wonder if they polled only young voters? The Hispanic numbers seem really off.

      • Calbengoshi

        I don’t know about Hispanics in other states, but I know that some of the people working for the Sanders campaign in CA are long-term activists with a history of involvement in MECHA and MAPA.

        ETA – Mistakenly hit the up vote button when I was trying to edit my post.

        • L’Homme Armé

          You can simply click the upvote again to undo it.

          • Calbengoshi

            Thank you.

          • NeuralQuirk

            Helpful information. I mistakenly upvoted myself recently and didn’t know it could be undone so easily. Still, I agreed with my sentiment.

          • Curt Richardson

            Sometimes I see a comment I want to upvote. I’m not sure if I already did. When I move the cursor over to the up arrows, it shows nothing. Do some want their upvotes hidden?

          • L’Homme Armé

            Sometimes you need to reload to see the upvotes. It seems to be related to upvotes occurring after you load the page, but I haven’t figured out the exact pattern.

          • Curt Richardson

            TY.

    • Dodgson

      A bird in hand is worth two smoking in the bush.

    • Curt Richardson

      I think it runs about 60%. Edit-That’s the average for the total early vote. Polls are coming out regularly describing the numbers so far. There is still some time before all the early votes are polled. I’m guessing there is a pattern here, but they never tell you how many votes they are basing this on.

  • DetroitTechnoFan

    I voted Bernie in Michigan, but he could completely dominate California and it ain’t gonna matter. Stick a fork in him and get ready for Hillary!

  • TC Green

    Bernie could win 60-40 and it wouldn’t change anything.

    • Mare Opacus

      You’re absolutely right. You know it. I know it. The American people know it…
      Hillary knows it. Bernie knows it…but his followers may not, nor will it look too good when the media spend a week covering Hillary’s loss in California. It’s an aesthetic victory, but she needs it.

      • Exactly. The system is set up so that the winner is determined by the numbers, but to keep things interesting, there’s an expectations game that gets played. Momentum is only as real as the majority says it is, which means that Hillary needs to do well in California, or lose momentum. Some might consider that unfair, but that’s the way the game is played. She’s smart enough to understand that, and to act accordingly. She’d just better hope she pulls out a win. It’s going to matter.

        Of course, if Bernie loses California, he also loses plenty of momentum, and will have a hard time justifying his campaign afterward. They both have a lot riding on this primary.

        • KurtBusiek

          Which of them has the momentum coming out of California will really have a big effect on the states that follow.

          Except there aren’t any. Just DC. It will be over even more than it’s over already.

          Sure, Sanders may argue that he’s the best choice for the superdelegates, but they won’t listen. Momentum — to whatever extent it exists — will have run out for both of them, and will start up again at the convention.

          After all, Obama lost most of the final states (and had lost California, as well) in 2008, but he did okay.

          • Curt Richardson

            I tried to find some polls on SD, ND, MT. No luck. They’re so small no one bothered. They have about 20 delegates each.

          • KurtBusiek

            Judging by the demographics, Sanders could easily win them all. And no one much will care.

            Clinton will likely take New Jersey, New Mexico and California. And DC the following week. And it won’t tell us anything new, but at least we’ll be at the end of the process. For ordinary citizens voting in primaries, at least.

          • Curt Richardson

            Except victories in those small states will give him spurious “momentum” to justify a fight right into the convention.

          • KurtBusiek

            Not if he loses the other three.

          • Curt Richardson

            “I won three, she won three. This race is not over” I’m just echoing Jeff Weaver on MSNBC yesterday.

          • KurtBusiek

            Yeah, good luck with that, Senator.

            Especially since, even if he tried that, DC with be the cherry on top of the sundae, the next week.

          • Curt Richardson

            It is common sense, and you’re very rational. I’m not certain he’s on the same page.

          • KurtBusiek

            I’ll let you worry about it, then. I think he’ll claim whatever he wants to claim, and no one except his most-fervent supporters will buy it. Eventually, the game is over.

          • I’m not talking about picking up more delegates, though. The numbers really don’t matter at this point; the winner is effectively decided. My point is that if Sanders wins big in California, that will strengthen his argument that the superdelegates should switch sides. They won’t, of course, but a Sanders win there will help to keep that argument alive, and thus drag this contest out further.

            Sanders can only win if hundreds of superdelegates change their minds. If they don’t, he loses. If they do, his argument that Clinton’s strength merely comes from an illusion of superdelegates falls apart, and he looks like a hypocrite. Even if Sanders swept the remaining contests after California, it wouldn’t change things.

          • KurtBusiek

            We’re talking about polls that have Clinton ahead a couple of points on one end of the scale to ahead by double digits on the other.

            When did that become about Sanders “winning big”? I thought the discussion was about him winning California _at_all_.

            And “remaining contests after California”? I can guarantee that someone will sweep those, because there’s a whole _one_ of them.

  • MrBeale

    Since she’ll probably wrap up the nomination through New Jersey before the CA polls even close, it is immaterial the margin she wins CA by. Heck, Sanders can even pull off a Michigan/Indiana-esque upset and it won’t amount to a hill of beans.

  • Lee

    Sanders “barnstorming” through California might have been too little too late. Looks like he’s having fun though.

    Once the primary season is officially over there has to be an end to posturing, and a start to serious discussions over how this will play out. This peoples movement turned into a rebellion. As much as Sanders tries to admit that he’s not a savior he seems to view everyone as a victim of establishment politics, and only he’s able to finally save them. As Howard Dean said a few days ago someone needs to sit him down and tell him: “it’s not about you”.

    • Curt Richardson

      Maybe Dean should attempt it? Other than Elizabeth Warren, I don’t know of anyone he would listen to or take advice from.

      • Joachim Mönch

        Distinguished Party Leader Howard Dean was an early supporter of Clinton and still supports her, leaving his state mate in a huff. Maybe Warren, but Weaver doesn’t like her. He thinks she runs clandestine back-channels hurting Sanders to improve her chances next opportunity. Yes, there is clearly a lot of paranoia in the Sanders campaign.

        • Curt Richardson

          If that’s true, paranoia is the key word. She is playing by the rules, hasn’t endorsed Clinton yet, has publicly stated she thinks it’s good Sanders is in the race, and she is the only one doing what every Senator and Governor should be doing, attacking Trump. She has already stated she will work to elect the Democratic nominee. What “next opportunity” could she be waiting for? If Clinton wins, is she going to primary her in 2020? 2024 is a little late for her to run for the Presidency.

  • i realize cali is much bigger than NJ, but it’s interesting how sanders has essentially ceded the state and it’s not at all a part of the conversation.

    • ChouChou

      I think that he looked at how well she did in the northeastern primaries, NY, PA, MA, etc., and figured that NJ was too much like its neighbors to be worth an effort.

      • ryp

        It’s also a closed primary, as is NM.

        • OwenPHL

          Not a strict closed primary. Independents can declare affiliation at voting. But switching between parties needs to be done 55 days before.

          • ryp

            Ah, my mistake, so semi-closed, as with California.

    • lostintheswamp

      it’s only a story if it looks like hillary is DOOMED! ….. i don’t even know if there’s any polling in new mexico and probably not the dakotas because no one seems to care what happens up there, it seems ..

    • Mare Opacus

      A bit like the unforced error Gary Hart made in 1984…

      • Lee

        Calling New Jersey a home to toxic waste was much more than a forced error. He was unraveling by then anyway.

  • TheFreakinGorn

    So depending on polls that are coming in just about daily now she’s either up by 2% or 15% … Kind of all over the place. I’d like to see her win CA and go to the convention w momentum.

    • lostintheswamp

      that’s one of my big reasons for wanting her to win, and i don’t care if it’s by 2% … a win is a win .. the other reason is just to shut sanders up …. except i doubt that he’ll shut up no matter what …

  • frankelee

    I’m just interested to see what the actual vote is since the polls are somewhere between Hillary +20 to +2.

  • SFBay1949

    I think Bernie has amnesia. In 2008 Hillary beat Obama by about 9 points in CA. It didn’t mean a thing. She had no way to make up the pledged delegates. Same goes for Bernie. The BIG difference is the Clinton and Obama are both Democrats and had the best interest of the country in mind. This sure as hell doesn’t seem to be true of Sanders. Not a Democrat and seemingly not interested or concerned that this country could fall into the hands of a crazy man.

    • ryp

      It was closer to 8 points, but her polling average was only up by about 3 going in.

  • David Rutawitz

    Hispanics voting for Bernie +6? oookk

  • Sardu

    CA polls have been all over the place. If anything, June 7th is going to be exciting.

    • L2thaL

      Agree. It will be interesting to see which polls ended up being the closest

    • Roehl

      Did I miss a poll that has Sanders up by forty? Because that’s what he needs to make it exciting.

      • Sardu

        If Sanders loses CA there’s a good chance he just drops out and we can start with the real general election work. But if he wins it by even +2 he’s going to ride that into the convention for sure.

        • Roehl

          He can go if he wants. It doesn’t change who wins the nomination.

          • ryp

            CA won’t change who gets the nomination, but if Sanders wins he will be that much more annoying, and the media might well play along with his argument that the supers really should take another look at him, keeping focus away from Clinton vs. Trump for a while longer. So while winning CA doesn’t matter in terms of Clinton winning the nomination, it could matter in terms of Sanders being a pain in the ass, which in turn could have some impact on party unity going into the general.

          • Roehl

            He’s going to be annoying no matter what. Forget it. Move on.

  • ryp

    The NBC poll assumes registered independents will turn out in nearly proportional numbers to Democrats and vote almost entirely in the Democratic primary ( current registration is 44% Dem, 24% Ind). It also has her +6 with Whites and -3 with Latinos. Even with shifting demographics, white voters will be around 47%, latinos 35%, African Americans 6% and Asians and others 12%. Assuming Sanders actually wins Latinos by this margin (doubtful), the rest of the electorate would have to split 50/50 for her to only win by 2.

    • APV

      Talking about independents…”A federal judge refused Wednesday to reopen voter registration in California ahead of next week’s presidential primary, telling a group led by backers of Sanders that the rights of the state’s unaffiliated voters have not been harmed….The judge also denied the request that volunteers at polling places be required to tell voters about the unusual rules surrounding which political parties have opened their presidential contests to unaffiliated “independent” voters.”

      http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-pol-ca-voting-lawsuit-sanders-supporters-20160601-snap-story.html

      Some potential Sanders voters may not be registered as truly independent/unaffiliated voters, but instead registered as “American Independent party” or “Libertarian” voters. Not sure how many such voters are in this sample.

      • ryp

        As I recall there are about 400K registered as AIP vs. 4 million registered as No Party Preference. It’s assumed that a majority of AIP registrants didn’t understand what they were signing up for, but it’s not really confusing when you register and it would appear 90% of registrants who wish to be “independent” understood the form.

        It appears the lawsuit is more concerned with wanting someone to inform NPP voters that they have to request a Dem ballot at the polling place, and can ask for one even if handed a non-party ballot. Somehow nobody really had a problem with this until Sanders ran.

  • nanotab

    I’m skeptical that this poll will give a good estimate of the actual vote. I’m presently visiting in the area south of San Francisco extending down to Monterey peninsula. I’ve seen one “Bernie 2016” sign on someone’s lawn in San Mateo County and one “Bernie” sign on a sand dune outside Monterey. In 2008 “Obama” signs were quite numerous in California. My observations are anecdotal and unscientific, but I’d expect much more evidence of “Bernie enthusiasm” if his share of the California vote was going to end up very close to Hillary’s.

    • ryp

      Signs and bumper stickers are a meaningless metric. Every poll shows Clinton handily winning LA county, but I’ve seen hardly any signs and stickers. I’ve seen a few more for Bernie, but over 99% of all cars and yards advertise no preference.

      • nanotab

        I don’t agree that it’s a meaningless metric. It’s an indicator, but an imperfect one. I love good surveys and good statistical analysis. But even the best designed survey can give results that don’t predict the outcome well due to sampling variability (even if the sample design was done perfectly).

        I regard Hillary as the default Democrat (for Democrats who are m.o.l. satisfied with what Obama has done as President and (in California) what Jerry Brown has done as governor. Bernie appeals to those who are dissatisfied and perhaps even angry. I believe that support for someone’s preferred candidate is more actively demonstrated by those who are dissatisfied and/or angry than by those who are m.o.l. satisfied.

  • cmb

    So?

  • Hawk2240

    Since New Jersey and New Mexico will clinch it for Hillary, the California vote will be moot.

    • Curt Richardson

      I haven’t found any recent polls on New Mexico. Have you seen any numbers?

  • CSStrowbridge
    • Curt Richardson

      If that is correct, and the average of early voters is 60%, I can’t see how Bernie gets to within two points.

  • Wynstone

    It is part of the American psyche these days to make it hard for everyone. We resent other people being comfortable. I hope we get over that by November. I don’t need the stress.

    • Curt Richardson

      LOL. I know what you mean.

      • Wynstone

        It’s the only thing that explains why oncoming cars speed up to keep me from making a left.

        • Curt Richardson

          Maybe they’re all Trump voters.

  • Curtis

    It won’t matter as far as winning the nomination goes, but losing California would be a bad look for Hillary. I suspect she will still win by around 5 points, though.

    • Curt Richardson

      Are you basing this on a poll? I ask because the numbers seem to be all over the place.

      • Curtis

        I still think Hillary will win, but there’s now been three polls in the past week that have shown her lead over Bernie down to two points, including the Field Poll that came out today, which is the gold standard of California polling.

        • Curt Richardson

          That’s the frustrating aspect of all these polls. Voting has been going on for weeks. Among those who have voted, Hillary leads by 17%. Typically, the early vote comprises between 50-60% of the total. If the Field poll is surveying likely voters(meaning those who haven’t voted yet), both polls could be fairly accurate. Most of the early votes come from older voters, who favor Hillary. The younger voters typically wait until election day. W/O knowing the exact numbers it’s difficult to make a judgement, If the numbers hold out, Hillary will wind up with a double digit win even if they tie the remaining 50%

  • AKRebel

    His page on Facebook just posted that they have enough money to go beyond CA and that they think they will win CA and that he is the one who can beat Trump. (edited to add this) And it also said that they were going to work to get the delegates to switch from Hillary to Bernie.

    • DT wxrisk

      thats bs and he know it

  • oh noooooooooooo

  • DT wxrisk

    The NC WSJ poll sample was 557 … compare that to…

    Hoover Institution Golden State Poll: Clinton +13 Over Sanders;
    sample size 1700 in full sample, 1196 in June primary election likely voter subsample

    http://www.hoover.org/press-releases/hoover-institution-golden-state-poll-clinton-13-over-sanders-harris-sanchez-lead

  • JamesInCA

    Either barely ahead, or way ahead, depending on which poll you look at.

    What she isn’t: behind.

  • growe

    I think 47% is les than 88% or whatever impossible number Bernie needs right?
    And if he won by 10 points in all five states he still falls way short.
    Oh the narrative the narrative…. Which lasts for 3-5 days.

    “after a harder fight than expected Hillary is the nominee” or
    “Romping to victory at the end Hillary is the nominee”

    Guess who doesn’t know the difference? Swing voters. They tune in at Labor Day.

    But we all understand, Bernie wants some Bragging Rights. That’s very important.
    If he won California by 0.1% (which as we know is illegitimate for Hillary) then he can snarl and mock and spit on her nomination. You know, for unity.

    No stories on NJ so I assume he is being crushed like a cheap lawn chair there.

    Well you earned it Sen Sanders. And if you lose all five states by big margins after this tacky drama Hillary will push you aside like a bag of garbage. Because, you know, she earned it. And it’s what you deserve for trying to help the yelling carrot hurt the nominee, too.

    • Jason Platt

      I am seriously pissed off, you do not want Democrats like me voting for Jill Stein. I did not vote for Ralph Nader and didn’t even consider voting for him at that time. But this animosity toward Bernie is quite upsetting. Bernie is not causing Hillary’s problems. Bernie did Hillary a favor by saying he was sick and tired of hearing about those e-mails. And Hillary’s supporters don’t seem to appreciate it. Bernie has run a campaign based on the issues.

      • Curt Richardson

        The first debate went as you described. It’s been downhill ever since.

      • CaptainCommonsense

        So your feelings must be coddled, or you’ll take your ball and go home?

        What would you say if Hillary supporters said that?

        • Jason Platt

          I do not criticize Hillary. I think we need to stick together. It’s not about me. Hillary needs us to win. And, yes, paying attention to the feelings of others isn’t a bad idea. I respect what Bernie has done and I respect what Hillary has done.

  • growe

    Baghdad Bob of Burlington is becoming less amusing every week.
    Hillary seems done playing patty cake so he may regret irritating her.

    • jbinphilly

      I don’t think Bernie Sanders cares that he is irritating Hillary Clinton or other Democrats. He doesn’t have any long loyalty to the party. And Hillary Clinton needs his supporters to cast votes for her in November. Bernie Sanders is going to milk this for all he can. And if he somehow wins California on Tuesday, he’ll feel like he has a mandate to fight all the way to the convention, a la Ted Kennedy in 1980.

    • Jason Platt

      Growe, Bernie supporters are watching and judging Hillary’s actions. I don’t think it’s wise to attack Bernie from her standpoint or the Democratic party’s standpoint.

  • HKeith

    Two early votes in my household for Hillary. I don’t see these numbers as accurate since the size of the early vote has grown in California and she leads with these folks by nearly 20 points.

  • samiyam318

    Even with the new poll Nate has her with a 94% chance to win California. http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/california-democratic/?ex_cid=mobilebar

    Everybody gets some wrong but his track record is pretty good.

  • NR

    I cannot wait to see when they project HRC as the nominee. Of course, cable news seems to be very pro-Sanders, who knows if they’ll just refuse (cue the Bernie bullshit about super delegates)?

  • chucktranberg

    Four recent polls–two have Hillary up big and two give her a two-point lead. Point being that she is leading in a state that Sanders apparently thinks is “Must Win” for him (even though it doesn’t matter if he does win). Other point about this poll–among early voters Hillary is up 58-41(so far) which is a pretty big margin for Sanders to make up on election day.

  • ding ding (sound of a train)