Trump Shouldn’t Bet on Changing the Electoral Map

Stuart Rothenberg: “Trump and his allies argue that his appeal among populist voters will help carry Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, and possibly even Michigan (16) and New Jersey (14), radically changing the political map and giving him a number of potential routes to victory.”

“That seems unlikely. President Obama’s margin in each of the four states was significantly greater than his overall national margin in 2012. He won nationally by 3.9 points but his margin was 5.4 points in Pennsylvania and 6.9 points in Wisconsin. Republican strategists begin almost every presidential election talking about snatching Pennsylvania and Wisconsin from the Democratic column, and each time they have failed.”

“The idea that New Jersey – or New York and California, which Trump has said he’ll put into play – will be a battlefield in the fall is nothing short of delusional. The mere fact that Trump and his strategists are talking about winning any of those three states undermines the credibility of their overall argument.”