Why Party Defections Matter

Jonathan Bernstein: “In a normal election when both parties are united behind their nominee, voters will hear one message for months: that people like themselves, including the politicians they like, are supporting one candidate, while people they normally dislike or disagree with are backing the other one. Whether voters consider themselves partisans or not, that message pushes them in the ‘correct’ direction — to the candidate of the party they normally support.”

“Conventions are especially powerful in sending such signals because they dominate the news for a few days at least, drowning out the voices of the opposing party.   Even after the convention, that message can be strong — if the party is united, that is. The muddier things are, however, the less likely voters will be pushed in the ‘correct’ direction.”

“This is probably a big part of what has given Clinton a solid lead in the polls right now. The Democrats are united and sound united, while Republicans clearly are not.”