Political Wire

SubscribeSign in
  • Front Page
  • Trending
  • Polling
  • Trial Balloon
  • Books
  • Membership
    • Members FAQ
    • Exclusive Analysis
    • My Favorites
  • Sign In
Theme
Text size

Why an October Surprise Probably Won’t Be

August 25, 2016 · 3:58 pm ET · Leave a Comment

Amy Walter: “At this point in a ‘normal’ campaign, there is talk about the dreaded ‘October Surprise’ which is an event or series of events that can change the contours and direction of the campaign. Or maybe it’s a new piece of information about the candidate that alters the perception of that candidate or pulls them off their carefully crafted message.”

“What’s unique about this campaign, however, is that the stuff (specifically bad stuff) that is most likely to come out between now and Election Day won’t be ‘surprising,’ but will instead reaffirm existing perceptions about these candidates. More suspect emails from Clinton and more bad behavior from Trump won’t be a “surprise” to voters who already view both Clinton and Trump more negatively than positively.”

Limited-time offer

Try Political Wire Free for 60 days

Members get Talking Points analysis, Trending News, the Polling Dashboard, the Trial Balloon podcast, new site features and no ads. Start your free trial

2016 Campaign

← PreviousExtra Bonus Quote of the DayNext →Trump Attacks Clinton Foundation Though He Donated

Keep reading

Front page →

Political Wire is reader-supported. Join for ad-free reading, member posts and new features →

Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire -- which for more than two decades has been one of the nation's most influential political news sites.

More about Taegan Goddard →

?Political Trivia

  • The Way It Was
    Eight moments in political history. Put them on a timeline.
    Play →
  • Yea or Nay?
    Five senators. Three bills. Can you guess how they all voted?
    Play →
  • Split Decision
    Nine Justices. One case. How did they rule?
    Play →
  • Pollster
    Do you have your finger on the pulse of America?
    Play →
  • Daily Trivia
    Four questions a day.
    Play →

A new game every day.

Your Account

Members

For the full experience, sign in.

Become a Member

Read everything on Political Wire. No ads, Talking Points analysis, Trial Balloon podcast, new features and more.

  • Join Political Wire
  • Gift a Membership

Members Only

  • Two Senate Races Remain
  • The Election They Didn’t See Coming
  • Having Money Isn’t the Same as Having Support
  • The Outsider Who Can’t Govern
  • A Bigger Majority, a Different Headache
  • Trump Dragged Down GOP Governors, Too

More members only posts →

Electoral Map Electoral Vote Map

222Democrat 97Toss-up 219Republican
270

Make your own map →

The starting map is built from how each state has voted compared with the country as a whole, not from how a state voted on its own. The last two presidential elections, with 2024 counting more than 2020. Then we…

Updated Nov. 4, 2026

?Political Trivia

  • The Way It Was →
  • Yea or Nay? →
  • Split Decision →
  • Pollster →
  • Daily Trivia →

Copyright © 2026 · Goddard Media LLC

Political Wire® is a registered trademark of Goddard Media LLC

Also from Goddard Media: Political Dictionary · Political Job Hunt · Electoral Vote Map

Privacy PolicyCorrections PolicyContact