Is There a Trump Effect Downballot?

Rick Klein: “Donald Trump’s coattails get a dual test on Tuesday, with Trump-style candidates taking on incumbent Republican senators with national profiles in Arizona and Florida. Both John McCain and Marco Rubio have endorsed Trump’s candidacy, despite personal insults the candidate himself has hurled their way. Trump has returned the favors, at least publicly. But Trump’s broader message has resonated in the primaries in both races, and any closer-than-comfortable margins will be attributed to the down-ballot Trump effect. It’s a dynamic that may carry significant weight in November, even if McCain and Rubio cruise to their nominations as expected. Both men will face off with aggressive Democratic challengers in the fall. They will need the Trump base, whether they like those voters or not.”

“On the other side of the aisle, the Bern gets a test in the primary challenge against Debbie Wasserman Schultz. Bernie Sanders made clear his distaste for the DNC chair, so much so that she was forced out of her job after her emails were hacked on the eve of the convention. Sanders helped raise money for her primary challenger, Tim Canova, in a Florida race that’s drawn liberal interest in the wake of the convention. All three big-name incumbents are expected to move on, though not without some bruises.”