How to Make Sense of the Election Forecasts

Ed Kilgore: “So whom should the discerning political junkie trust? That’s hard to say. It’s tempting to rely on the betting markets since presumably the gamblers have predigested all the other data. For the truly cautious, there is even a forecasting average, called PollyVote, that lumps together all kinds of forecasts. All these estimates (other than the more unchanging of the ‘fundamentals’ models) may well begin to converge as we get closer to Election Day. All the models that rely on polling averages should settle down as the data massively accumulates in late October. But if the race is very close, we could see split predictions at the last minute, and then it could be a matter of the tiniest thumb on the scales making a crucial difference.”

For members: Why I Pay Less Attention to Nate Silver This Year