GOP Exodus Could Cause a Wave

Sam Wang: “The insta-consensus among commentators is that somehow this event is a cause of Trump’s electoral doom. I think the logic is backwards – to me, the growing obviousness of his doom created an environment for this story to blow up. The genuinely new development is the impact for downticket – in both the Senate and the House.”

“Until now I thought the House was likely to remain Republican. But the fact that swing district Congresswoman Barbara Comstock has fled for the exit is an early indicator. If Trump is enough of an anchor, Democrats have an outside chance. However, at a minimum they need to win the national popular vote by 6-8%.”

For members: The House Is Now In Play