Clinton Now Favored In Ohio

Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball moves Ohio to Hillary Clinton’s column:

There has been a lot written about why Donald Trump will perform better in Ohio than nationally — we devoted an entire article to it last week. Both the state’s history of having a slight Republican lean and its current demographics make it friendlier to Trump than the nation as a whole. However, polling in the state is showing that Donald Trump’s lead from a few weeks ago has evaporated, and the most recent surveys actually have had Clinton ahead. We’ve also caught wind of some unreleased polling that mirrors these results. If Clinton has a national lead of around four or five points, there’s good reason to think that Ohio will end up voting for her, even if it has a redder tint than usual.

The Clinton campaign also appears to be redoubling its efforts in this historic bellwether, further putting to bed rumors that the Clinton campaign might not be focusing much on the state (although one never knows what might happen in the final month of this contest). Clinton herself is campaigning on Monday in Columbus, a place where she will likely need to match or probably even exceed Obama’s performance to win the state, and President Obama is campaigning in Cleveland and Columbus later in the week. On Thursday, Trump will be in Cincinnati, the heart of vote-rich southwest Ohio, a conservative region that is vital to any Republican’s statewide chances.

If Clinton wins Ohio, Trump has no path to victory. No Republican has ever won the White House without it, and, particularly in this election, Ohio’s demographics should make it relatively low-hanging fruit for the Republicans. So we now have Trump as the underdog in Florida, North Carolina, and Ohio, three electoral vote-rich states that he absolutely needs to have any chance to win.