A Battle Over Medicare Is Coming

First Read: “An interesting thing happened in the 2016 presidential race: There was no big fight over the politics of Medicare, seniors, and entitlements — like there was in 2010, 2012, and 2014. (The reason why was due to Donald Trump’s promise not to touch entitlements, as well as the Clinton campaign’s effort to go after Trump on temperament, not policy.)”

“But with Republicans in charge of the White House and Congress come Jan. 20, and with House Speaker Paul Ryan’s long-awaited effort to privatize/voucherize/restructure Medicare, entitlement politics are coming back… The biggest unknown, however, is whether President-elect Trump goes along with Ryan’s plans.”

Key takeaway: “Trump joining Ryan’s Medicare efforts could achieve a long-standing conservative goal, but open up the GOP to some mighty political attacks from Democrats in 2018 (including that Trump broke his promise on Medicare and entitlements). Or Trump blocking Ryan could uphold his promise on entitlements, especially with the kinds of voters who won him the election, but it would produce a significant fissure inside the GOP and conservative movement (which Democrats could still exploit). This will be one of the most important storylines to watch next year.”