Tax Reform Is Already In Trouble

Stan Collender: “Many of the very same pressures that stopped the GOP’s American Health Care Act dead in its tracks will be present again with tax reform. As a result, unlike what many analysts were saying just a few days ago, corporate tax reform this year not only is no longer a sure thing , it has to be considered to be in trouble.”

“But there will be one big difference between Obamacare and tax reform: it won’t be as easy for Congress to pass a budget resolution in May or June as it was for it to adopt a budget resolution this past January and, without one, the reconciliation procedures won’t be available.”

“The reason for that difficulty? The January fiscal 2017 budget resolution was largely pro forma; it made no substantive policy changes and was done just to get reconciliation instructions in place for ACA repeal. Many House and Senate Republicans held their noses and voted for it even though it had high deficits and what they considered to be excessive spending levels only so the AAC repeal debate could get underway. By contrast, the fiscal 2018 budget resolution that Congress will consider later this year will be the real thing, with deficits and spending levels that will be anything but acceptable to many representatives and senators.”