Odds of a Government Shutdown Rise

Mike Allen and Jonathan Swan: “Top White House and GOP leadership officials tell us the chances of a market-rattling government shutdown are rising by the day — and were even before Trump threatened at his raucous Phoenix rally on Tuesday night to use a shutdown as leverage to get funding for a border wall. Trump is dead serious about this fight, a senior administration source tells us, and the president’s talk is starting to spook markets.”

One top Republican source put the chance as high as 75%: “The peculiar part is that almost everyone I talk to on the Hill agrees that it is more likely than not.”

The Hill notes that “with just 12 legislative days scheduled for September –– and the spending debate complicated by a Sept. 29 deadline to raise the debt ceiling –– the Republicans have little room for error. And Trump’s prime-time shutdown threat poses yet another hurdle, forcing GOP leaders to find a legislative sweet-spot that satisfies the president’s border-wall demand without alienating the Democrats, whose votes will be essential to keep the government running.”