Turnout Is the Big Question In Alabama

A new Monmouth poll in Alabama finds slight differences in turnout could dramatically change the outcome of tomorrow’s special U.S. Senate election.

• A standard midterm turnout model gives Roy Moore (R) a slight advantage, 48% to 44%.
• A higher, although less likely, near-presidential election turnout would give Doug Jones (D) a slim lead, 48% to 45%.
• An adjusted midterm estimate based on patterns seen in last month’s Virginia gubernatorial race – i.e. relatively higher turnout in Democratic strongholds – puts Tuesday’s election up for grabs, 46% to 46%.

Said pollster Patrick Murray: “In a typical year, we would probably default to the historical model, which shows Moore ahead. It could still end up that way, but both 2016 and 2017 suggest that typical models may not apply. If we see a surge in Democratic turnout, especially in the Birmingham region, Jones has a chance.”