Where Did the Wave Go?

Nate Cohn: “The Democratic advantage on the generic congressional ballot, which asks people whether they’ll vote for Democrats or Republicans for Congress, has dwindled since the heart of the tax debate in December. Then, nearly all surveys put Republicans behind by double digits. Now, poll averages put the Democratic lead at only around six or seven percentage points.”

“The question isn’t really whether Republican standing has improved recently. It has. The question is whether anyone should care: Is it just one of many blips and bumps along the road, or does it say something meaningful about the midterm elections?”

“The short answer: Check back in a month. The shift hasn’t lasted long enough to merit a reassessment of the national political environment. But there are reasons to think it could.”