Democrats Regain Their Lead in the Generic Ballot

Philip Bump: “In January, Monmouth gave the Democrats a two-point lead; it’s now nine points. Quinnipiac’s new poll gave the Democrats a 10-point lead, lower than other recent polls from the pollsters but hardly bad news. RealClearPolitics compiles a running daily average of the generic ballot margin. In December, there was a lot of discussion of the sizable lead the Democrats enjoyed which, in January, became talk of how the margin was narrowing. Now it’s widening again, making up nearly half of what was lost from the December peak. The Democratic advantage now stands at 9.1 points.”

Nate Cohn: “There’s nothing new about a short-term swing in the polls that fails to cause a big change in a race. So far this year, just about every big shift in the generic ballot has proved short-lived. Highly sensitive, short-term estimates have misled much more often than they’ve presaged a lasting change.”

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