Ryan’s Retirement Puts His Seat at Risk

Speaker Paul Ryan’s retirement shifts Wisconsin’s his congressional district from the Solid Republican to the Lean Republican, “with the potential for the race to become even more competitive,” the according to the Cook Political Report.

Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball says it’s a Toss Up.

Weekly Standard: “Ryan’s district might not be competitive if the national environment was neutral. Wisconsin’s 1st District moved right in the 2016 election. Trump won the district by 10 points after Romney took it only by four points in 2012 (though 2012 may be an odd case because Ryan was the GOP’s vice presidential nominee). And in 2008, Barack Obama won the area by about three points while winning the national popular vote by seven, suggesting that it took a real step to the right over the course of the last four to eight years. If you add that to Ryan’s incumbency advantage, you get a district that would’t typically be near the boottom of the GOP’s list of worries.

“But the national environment isn’t neutral.”