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What to Watch In Arizona’s Special House Election

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First Read: “Don’t bet on Democrats continuing their streak of special-election victories in districts/states Trump carried when Debbie Lesko (R) faces off against Hiral Tipirneni (D) on Tuesday in the race to replace former Rep. Trent Franks, (R-AZ).”

“But maybe the bigger story tomorrow, at least when it comes to judging if the political winds are still blowing at the Democrats’ backs, will be looking at the ultimate margin of Lesko vs. Tipirneni in this district Trump carried by 21 points in 2016. In the eight major contests of 2017 and 2018, Democrats have outperformed Hillary Clinton’s margin in these same districts/states by, on average, about 12 points… So Democrats keeping the race to single digits would match that average over-performance.”

Said the Cook Political Report’s David Wasserman: “Really anything above ~41% in #AZ08 (R+13 PVI) would be consistent w/ Dems on track to win the House or a statewide AZ race.”

About Political Wire

Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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