Democrats Don’t Have a Lock on Taking Back House

Harry Enten: “While Democrats are favored to take back the House, it’s by no means a certain proposition.”

“Right now, Democrats hold somewhere in the area of a seven-point lead in generic congressional ballot polling over the last two months. Based upon movement in the generic ballot in midterm campaigns from this point in the cycle to the election since 1938, we’d expect the margin to remain roughly the same on Election Day 2018 (Democrats +7).”

“A seven-point lead for the Democrats on the generic congressional ballot is far from a guarantee that they’d take back the House. In fact, my estimate based upon on how district lines are drawn suggest that Democrats would probably be a 50:50 proposition of gaining enough seats (23) to take back the House, if they won the national House vote by 7 percentage points.”