Mike Murphy: “I think the bigger question is what happens if we lose the House — and more — in the 2018 midterms. If it does happen, such a meltdown will shake the party badly — no political party endures a major loss without repercussions — and Trump, the supreme magical winner of 2016, will become an epic party-killing loser. (My guess is Trump will compound this by attacking the party for its loss, since nothing can ever be his fault.)”
“At that point the idea of running in 2020 under Trump will look like a march to the guillotine, particularly for the GOP Senate majority. That’s when Trump will find himself on the sharp end of the same kind of cynical self-preservation thinking that he’s benefited from to date. Nobody in the family stands up to Tony Soprano until they stop making money and start going to prison. Then it’s time for change. Tony is the last to know.”
“Still, if we hang on to the House by two votes, it’ll read in the expectations bazaar as a big Trump comeback win and he’ll probably be the nominee. Then we’ll be near-certain to lose big 2020. It’ll be our McGovern ’72 and out of that rubble the 2023-4 GOP primary race will redefine the party, hopefully back to opportunity conservatism.”
