Josh Kraushaar: “Privately, Republican leaders expect to lose around 30 seats—and the House majority—but acknowledge that there could be a number of unexpected outcomes pushing those numbers higher on Election Night. That’s an all-too-realistic scenario given the supercharged liberal engagement in districts across the country, lackluster re-election efforts from unprepared GOP members of Congress, and impressive fundraising figures from even long-shot Democratic challengers.”
“Outside GOP groups, particularly the cash-flush Congressional Leadership Fund, have been effective in undermining some of the leading Democratic challengers in conservative districts… But there are many other districts where Trump won less than 55 percent of the vote that feature Democratic challengers who have gone under-the-radar. Some of these races have barely been polled, even though there’s good reason to think these GOP-leaning seats could be vulnerable. The surprising competitiveness of recent special elections in conservative districts—ones where Republicans hardly engaged—suggest there will be a Democratic undertow that many aren’t expecting.”
“All told, that means Republicans are likely to lose around 30-35 House seats—but the potential for a larger total is higher than the likelihood they can salvage their majority. The recent uptick in Trump’s job approval numbers helps a bit, but only in races where GOP candidates show they can help themselves. With suburban swing-district Republicans already in trouble, the bottom is falling out at the worst possible time.”
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