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Why Late Vote Counts Tend to Favor Democrats

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Monkey Cage: “There are two reasons the blue shift exists and has become more prominent. First, the 2002 Help America Vote Act required states to institute provisional ballots for voters with a disputed registration status when they went to vote. Because voters who cast a provisional vote are more likely to be young and members of a racial or ethnic minority group, provisional ballots are disproportionately Democratic.”

“Second, Democrats are slightly more likely to vote by mail than Republicans. This is probably  because Democratic campaigns are more likely to emphasize turning out supporters before Election Day than are Republican campaigns. Thus as these mail ballots are counted, the overall total will again lean Democratic.”

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goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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