Did the Debates Upend the Democratic Race?

Jonathan Bernstein: “The polls have certainly changed. Former Vice President Joe Biden has lost about five percentage points in the RealClearPolitics average. Senator Bernie Sanders has also lost a couple. Senator Elizabeth Warren is up by about one percentage point and Senator Kamala Harris has shot up by six. So Biden still has a solid but smaller lead, while Harris, Sanders and Warren are now in a three-way tie for second. That’s new.”

“Remember, though, that it’s still very early. An initial round of good results for Harris could lead to a continued surge, or her support could dissipate over the next week or two. We’ve seen that happen a number of times already this cycle.”

“Suppose the results stick. Can we call that a debate effect? That’s not clear either. It could be that the debate did nothing more than push people in the direction they were already heading – that is, toward the strong but little-known candidates, and away from weaker but better-known candidates.”