Two Different Contests Define the Democratic Race

First Read: “Fifty-four percent of Democratic primary voters say they prefer a nominee who proposes larger-scale policies that might cost more and be harder to pass — but could still result in major change. Among these voters, Warren leads the pack (at 29%), and she’s followed by Bernie Sanders (18%), Biden (16%) and Kamala Harris (14%).”

“By contrast, 41% of Dem primary voters say they want a nominee who pushes for smaller-scale policies that cost less and might be easier to pass — but that bring less change. And among these voters, Biden holds a substantial lead (at 35%), followed by Harris (14%), Warren (8%), Pete Buttigieg (8%) and Sanders (7%).”

“Bottom line: The big-change Democratic voters outnumber the small-change ones. But you can see a situation how Warren and Sanders could split the former group, and how Biden might lap the field with the latter. That’s Biden’s path to victory, even in Iowa — if his candidacy holds up.”