Forecast Points to Gains By Democrats In 2020

Alan Abromowitz‘s latest forecast model finds that based on President Trump’s current net approval rating and the current House generic ballot, the Democrats would be likely to make modest gains in the House elections and have a real chance to win control of the Senate.

“According to the most recent averages from FiveThirtyEight, national polls have shown a Democratic advantage of around 6.5 points on the House generic ballot — somewhat similar to the results prior to the 2018 midterm election — and a net approval rating for President Trump of about -10. Those numbers, if they continue into the late summer of 2020, would predict Democratic gains of around five seats in the House and six seats in the Senate.”

“However, there are significant caveats with both projections. Obviously, one of those is that it is very early and that the president’s approval rating and the generic ballot could very well be different late next summer.”