Trump Must Outperform His Popularity Again to Win

Ed Kilgore: “The specter that most haunts Democrats as we hurtle toward the 2020 election is that Donald J. Trump managed to get himself elected president in 2016 despite terrible, historically unprecedented (for a major-party presidential nominee) unpopularity, as measured by favorability ratios (Gallup had him at 36 percent favorable/61 percent unfavorable on election eve). To put it mildly, Trump overperformed his favorability numbers, even if you take into account Hillary Clinton’s unpopularity, which was strong, although not in Trump’s neighborhood (Gallup had her favorability ratio at 47/52). And if you don’t want to rely on Gallup, the official exit polls gave Trump a 38 percent approval rating among voters who actually showed up, compared to HRC’s 43 percent.”

“Now that Trump is POTUS, it’s his job-approval numbers that are the most relevant measure of his popularity. And those who have been staring at his approval ratings have to wonder: Are they good enough, or close to good enough, for another Trump win if (a) he drags his opponent down in public esteem as he dragged down HRC, and (b) he gets the benefit of an Electoral College advantage via more efficient distribution of his popular vote?”

For members: Trump Is Running Behind His Approval Rate