Both Biden and Warren Do Well with White Working Class

A new Democracy Corps (D) survey finds Democrats have two electable candidates at the moment — Joe Biden (leads by 8 points) and Elizabeth Warren (leads by 7), with Bernie Sanders at the edge (5 percent).

“One of the reasons both Biden and Warren are proving to be electable is the surprising result with white working class voters. While Biden has more of a working class base in the Democratic primary, the 2020 election is being shaped by bigger forces. In this combined sample of white working class women (643 respondents), Biden loses by 9 points (50 to 41 percent) and Warren by 10 (51 to 41 percent). Both are gains on 2018 and a dramatic shift from 2016. That means the 13-point shift to the Democrats in the off-year has continued another 4 points now.”

“They both lose to Trump among white working class men (combined sample of 562) by a much bigger margin — 31 points and 33 points respectively. As daunting as that appears, the trend with men is encouraging as well. Democrats gained 14 points in 2018 and Biden would take those gains 3 points further. Warren holds the 2018 gains, as there is no evidence of working class voters going back to the 2016 Trump margins.”

Key takeaway: “Both Biden and Warren perform comparably with the white working class, and both make impressive gains with the women. That may be the unfolding story in the 2020 elections.”