Iowa Really Is a Toss Up

Jonathan Bernstein: “The FiveThirtyEight average has Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders and former Vice President Joe Biden tied for first (Sanders has a 0.1% advantage). But the most important point made by the FiveThirtyEight analysts is over at their projection page: “Joe Biden is forecasted to win an average of 28% of the vote in Iowa. In 80% of simulations, he wins between 11% and 44% of the vote.” Plug in Sanders, and the same results come back. Former Mayor Pete Buttigieg of South Bend, Indiana, and Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts have similar, although slightly lower, ranges. In other words, it’s plausible that those four candidates could finish in any order at all. It also wouldn’t be surprising if one or two of them finish below Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar, although she could also finish below several of the others if she winds up at the bottom of her likely range.”

“The FiveThirtyEight model is telling us something important. When there are lots of candidates, and lots of voters who like most or all of them, the history is clear: Large swings from the polls to the final results are possible in Iowa, even in the final week.”