A Landslide and Close Race Are Easy to Imagine

Nate Cohn: “We’re all understandably focused on the states likeliest to decide the election, like Pennsylvania and Florida. Those states remain close enough that Mr. Trump remains competitive. But states like Texas, Georgia, Ohio and Iowa also remain very competitive. In fact, they’re even closer than Florida or Pennsylvania — so close that a Biden landslide is just as real a possibility as a Trump victory.”

“Here’s a different way to think about it: If Mr. Biden outperformed today’s polls by just two points, he would be declared the winner early on election night. Florida would be called by around 8 p.m., and Texas could be the state that makes Mr. Biden the president-elect. (Yes, Texas). He’d have a good shot at the largest electoral vote landslide since 1988.”

“But if Mr. Trump outperformed the polls by the same margin, suddenly we’d have an extraordinarily close race on our hands, potentially waiting days or weeks while mail-in votes were counted in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.”