Early Polling Points to Strong 2022 for Republicans

Harry Enten: “Indeed, once you control for who controls the White House, there is a surprisingly strong correlation between the generic congressional ballot 19 months before the midterm elections and the eventual House result.”

“If trends hold, the most likely national House result in 2022 given the current generic ballot is Republicans winning by between 4 and 5 points.”

“While we don’t know how redistricting will change things in terms of what type of advantage Democrats will need in the national vote to hold onto the House, any Republican advantage in the popular vote would probably be enough to take the House.”